Sangli: Winner Vishal Patil: Margin: About 20,000

Mahesh Patil Kandagale and his Jansankalp Team

  • Local Analysts gave 10 to 15K Margin after exit polls
  • Mahesh’s report is before exit polls.

For record: Local Issues

`The local issues that could sway voter sentiment in Sangli are primarily centered around water scarcity, infrastructure development, and farmer concerns. Here are some key issues:

  • Drought and Water Scarcity: Maharashtra’s Sangli and Satara districts are prone to acute water shortages. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll, Vishal Patil is likely to win the Sangli Lok Sabha seat, but with a narrow margin
  1. local administrations have taken measures to stop water theft and deploy water tankers to ensure some supply to affected areas. This issue is critical for the voters, particularly in the 65 water-deprived villages in Jat tehsil that have been demanding permanent irrigation.
  2. Mhaisal Lift Irrigation Scheme: The Mhaisal Lift Irrigation Scheme is a project aimed at providing water for agricultural and drinking purposes in drought-prone regions. The scheme is expected to cost around Rs 1,100 crore and will help farmers switch to cash crops and fruit crops. The scheme’s expansion is a significant issue for farmers in the Jat taluka of Sangli.
  3. Floods: Sangli is also prone to floods, particularly due to the Almatti dam in Karnataka. The dam’s late discharge of water has been linked to flooding in the region, causing significant damage to agriculture and human life. This issue is critical for farmers and residents who have been affected by the floods. (Vishan’s family and friends involvement)
  4. Infrastructure Development: The lack of adequate infrastructure, including roads and water supply, is a major concern for voters. The Sangli-Peth Naka Road construction and the Borgaon-Watambare Section Four-Laning are significant projects that could influence voter sentiment.
  5. Farmer Issues: Sugarcane farmers in Sangli and Kolhapur regions are protesting for better prices for their produce. They are demanding an additional payment of Rs 400 per tonne for cane crushed in the previous season and a Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) of Rs 3,500 per tonne for the current season.(NCP Leaders Suppport to Vishal)

These local issues will play a significant role in shaping voter sentiment in Sangli, particularly in the context of the ongoing election and Vishal is always on these and available to local people

Why Mahesh Patil Kandagale predicted Vishal’s winning before Exit Polls

Vishal Patil, the Congress rebel contesting as an Independent candidate, is likely to win the Sangli Lok Sabha seat, but with a narrow margin, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. Here are the pros and cons of his candidature:

Pros:

  • Vishal Patil has the support of the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), which could provide a significant boost to his chances.
  • He claims to have the backing of disgruntled BJP leaders, Congress and NCP (SCP) MLAs, and their respective voters.
  • Sangli has been a Congress stronghold, and Vishal Patil’s family legacy could work in his favor.
  • The BJP’s sitting MP, Sanjaykaka Patil, is facing anti-incumbency after two terms.
  • The support from VBA and disgruntled BJP leaders could be crucial in tipping the scales in his favor which is obvious now

Cons: (and why Mahesh negated these issues)

  • Vishal Patil is contesting as an Independent candidate, which could make it challenging to mobilize resources and campaign effectively. (This is negated as Vishal and his political legacy and local presence make it irralavent)
  • The BJP’s Sanjaykaka Patil is a popular figure and has the backing of the Modi wave

(Modi ji undeniable wave is threat but negated by local politics. Else Vishal would have won with more margin )

  • The Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate, Chandrahar Patil, could also pose a threat, especially if the MVA alliance holds. MVA alliance members and especially NCP both factions are in support of Vishal Patil. Chosing Chandrahat Patil is actually positive for Vishal)
  • Vishal Patil’s decision go again Congress party could lead to lose of Party support. This is negated by Vishal;s proximity with local congress and he and his team maintained congress. The effect of Congress high command is negligible as Congress indirectly and actually supported as cadre is behind him.

While Vishal Patil has a strong chance of winning the Sangli Lok Sabha seat is almost certain, Mahesh further went on record that margin is about 20,000 much before exit polls

Now, its worthwhile noting the following predictions after our posts  including “India Today-Axis My India exit poll, Vishal Patil is likely to win the Sangli Lok Sabha seat, but with a narrow margin “ . Mahesh and his team is way ahead of others in his predictions.

 

 

 

 

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